Duckworth opens with her strongest case study – West Point cadets – but the numbers are less impressive than her framing suggests. Grit moves the needle from 95% to 98% completion. The real story is that relative risk ratios can make tiny absolute effects sound transformational.
So what
The West Point data is real but oversold. Grit predicts who quits a program where 95% of people finish regardless. The absolute effect is a 3 percentage point difference. Frame-check any study where the baseline success rate is above 90% – relative risk ratios will always sound more impressive than they are.
Verdict
NeedsContext