Chapter 10 warns that humans – including trained researchers – have terrible intuitions about sampling variability. The science is solid and has been vindicated by the replication crisis. The irony is that Kahneman’s own book fell victim to the same error, citing small-sample studies that later collapsed. Gigerenzer’s important critique (frequency formats reduce errors) is omitted.
So what
This chapter contains the book’s most self-aware insight and its deepest irony. The science on statistical reasoning errors is robust. But the book itself fell victim to the very bias it describes, citing small-sample studies that later failed replication. Read this chapter as both a lesson in statistics and a cautionary tale about the limits of expert judgment.
Verdict
MostlyAccurate