Subscribe

The trick: Zero Underneath

ByteDance is training a 10 trillion parameter model.

That number tells you almost nothing.

Issue 511 August 20264 receipts3 min

The Financial Times reported, citing three people, that ByteDance is pretraining a model with up to 10 trillion parameters to rival Anthropic's Mythos.

Before you read on. Your call?

the report holds. Multiple outlets corroborate it. But 10 trillion is described as an upper bound still under consideration, not a final spec, and there are zero published evals. The 'rivals Mythos' line compares it to an unofficial 8 trillion estimate that Anthropic has never confirmed, because Anthropic does not publish parameter counts at all.

The twist

parameter count is not capability. Kimi K3 lists 2.8 trillion parameters but activates only 104 billion per token, and nobody has said whether ByteDance's number is dense or sparse. As one write-up put it, ten trillion is the upper bound of scale under consideration, not a finished performance benchmark. Bigger is bigger. It is not automatically better.

0PUBLISHED EVALS FOR THE 10T MODEL
10TCLAIMED UPPER BOUND
3ANONYMOUS SOURCES
104BKIMI K3 ACTIVE PARAMS OF 2.8T

There’s more to this story.

Membership opens the full investigation, the strongest counterargument and what to do with what you’ve learned.

Start your free month →

First membership: 30 days free, then A$89 a year. One introductory trial per customer. Card required; renews annually until cancelled. Cancel before the trial ends to avoid the first charge. Already a member? Sign in

The trick has a name

We call it Zero Underneath: the headline number has nothing behind it. You'll see it again. Learn to spot it →

Say this in tomorrow's meeting“'How many parameters are active per token, and where are the benchmarks?' A 10 trillion count with neither answered is a spec, not a rival.”

Receipts

  1. Supports mlq.ai: ByteDance is training an AI model with as many as 10 trillion parameters, the Financial Times reported Friday, citing three people familiar with the project
  2. Supports thenextweb.com: the model is meant to rival Anthropic’s Mythos, one of the frontier systems that Chinese developers have so far struggled to match
  3. Context eweek.com: Industry estimates place Anthropic’s advanced Mythos 5 model at roughly 8 trillion parameters, though Anthropic does not publish official parameter counts
  4. Refutes xenospectrum.com: Ten trillion is not a finished performance benchmark

Open the Receipts Pack → What each source proves, every figure traced, and what would change our verdict.

This story is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict,tell us. Corrections are loud here.