Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger · chapter 1 · id poor-charlies-almanack-c1-03-mungers-reward-superresponse-t

“Munger's 'Reward Superresponse Tendency' (incentive-caused bias) is the most powerful of all cognitive biases.”

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Receipts

Gneezy, Meier & Rey-Biel, 'When and Why Incentives (Don't) Work,' Journal of Economic Perspectives (2011)DOI registry: valid

Incentives can powerfully shape behavior but also backfire -- monetary rewards can crowd out intrinsic motivation and social norms.

Gneezy & Rustichini, 'A Fine Is a Price,' Journal of Legal Studies (2000)DOI registry: valid

When a daycare introduced fines for late pickup, lateness increased -- the fine removed the social stigma and replaced it with a simple price.

Mellers et al., 'Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament,' Psychological Science (2014)DOI registry: valid

Superforecasters found multiple biases contributed to poor judgment; no single bias was identified as universally most powerful.

This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us — corrections are loud here.