Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger · chapter 1 · id poor-charlies-almanack-c1-10-munger-identifies-contrast-mis

“Munger identifies 'Contrast-Misreaction Tendency' where the brain misjudges absolute values by comparing them to nearby reference points, exemplified by real estate agents showing an overpriced house first.”

holdsconfidence: high✓ ZHP-verified + red-teamed

Receipts

Tversky & Kahneman, 'Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,' Science (1974)DOI registry: valid

In anchoring, people make estimates by starting from an initial value that is adjusted to yield the final answer. Adjustments are typically insufficient.

Roseler et al., 'The Replicability of Anchoring Effects,' Psychological Research (2022)FLAGGED: DOI not in registry

Anchoring effects replicated consistently across 42 studies with a pooled effect size of d = 0.86.

This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us — corrections are loud here.