Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger · chapter 2 · id poor-charlies-almanack-c2-01-the-efficient-market-hypothesi

“The Efficient Market Hypothesis is substantially wrong -- markets exhibit predictable bubbles and mispricings that skilled investors can exploit.”

needs contextconfidence: medium✓ ZHP-verified + red-teamed

Receipts

Nobel Prize Committee, 2013 Economics Prize Summarysource alive

The 2013 prize was awarded jointly to Fama (EMH architect) and Shiller (bubble theorist), effectively acknowledging the debate is unresolved.

Robert Shiller, Nobel Lecture: 'Speculative Asset Prices' (2013)source alive

Shiller's CAPE ratio demonstrates long-run return predictability, which contradicts strong-form EMH.

SPIVA Scorecard (S&P Dow Jones Indices, 2024)paywalled — manual check queued

Over 15 years, approximately 87-92% of large-cap U.S. actively managed funds underperformed the S&P 500.

This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us — corrections are loud here.