Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger · chapter 4 · id poor-charlies-almanack-c4-01-when-multiple-cognitive-biases

“When multiple cognitive biases combine ('lollapalooza effects'), they produce outsized, multiplicative outcomes rather than merely additive ones.”

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Receipts

Ku, Malhotra & Murnighan, 'Towards a Competitive Arousal Model,' Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes (2005)DOI registry: valid

Competitive arousal in auctions produces irrational escalation beyond what any single bias would predict -- demonstrating multiplicative bias interaction.

Sunstein, 'Probability Neglect: Emotions, Worst Cases, and Law,' Yale Law Journal (2002)check errored — retry queued

Affect heuristic + availability bias + probability neglect compound to produce extreme policy responses to low-probability risks.

Thaler, 'Anomalies: The Winner's Curse,' Journal of Economic Perspectives (1988)DOI registry: valid

Auction winners systematically overpay, consistent with multiple biases compounding in the same direction.

This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us — corrections are loud here.