Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger · chapter 4 · id poor-charlies-almanack-c4-06-mungers-inversion-method----te

“Munger's inversion method -- 'tell me where I'm going to die, and I'll never go there' -- is a problem-solving technique credited to mathematician Carl Jacobi.”

holdsconfidence: high✓ ZHP-verified + red-teamed

Receipts

Klein, 'Performing a Project Premortem,' HBR (2007)DOI registry: valid

A premortem assumes a project has failed and asks team members to generate plausible reasons. This increases the ability to identify threats by 30%.

Mitchell, Russo & Pennington, 'Back to the Future,' JBDM (1989)FLAGGED: DOI not in registry

When people explain an event by assuming it has already occurred, they generate 25% more reasons than when asked to predict.

This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us — corrections are loud here.