Poor Charlie's Almanack: The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger · chapter 4 · id poor-charlies-almanack-c4-10-mungers-sensemaking-tendency-h

“Munger's 'Sensemaking Tendency' holds that humans construct coherent narratives from random events, leading to pattern-finding in noise and overconfident causal explanations.”

needs contextconfidence: medium✓ ZHP-verified + red-teamed

Receipts

Gilovich, Vallone & Tversky, 'The Hot Hand in Basketball,' Cognitive Psychology (1985)DOI registry: valid

Statistical analysis showed no evidence of streak shooting beyond chance.

Miller & Sanjurjo, 'Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy?' Econometrica (2018)FLAGGED: DOI not in registry

The original analysis contained a subtle statistical bias. After correction, there IS evidence for the hot hand, though smaller than folk belief.

This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us — corrections are loud here.