The trick: Announced Not Shipped
OpenAI announced the AGI era.
Congress announced a bill to ban it. Neither one exists yet.
the same day OpenAI's Greg Brockman said Astra put us in the AGI era, Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Greg Casar unveiled the Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act, which would jail violators up to 20 years, a penalty the bill's own text likens to existing nuclear-weapons-development law.
Before you read on. Your call?
TRUE, BUT
Day one
OpenAI's number is Astra's 99.9% on ARC-AGI-3, achieved only through its own harness; ARC Prize itself scored the same model 62.7% on its neutral Standard harness and says saturating the benchmark would not prove AGI either way. Sanders' own announcement quotes him in the present tense, saying he is introducing legislation to pause and ban the systems, the same day as the press release, meaning day one of a process, not an enacted law with a voting history.
The twist
a marketing claim that does not survive its own benchmark's scrutiny landed the same day as a legislative announcement that does not yet exist as legislation. Both sides are selling the sizzle.
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The trick has a name
We call it Announced Not Shipped: claimed, never released. You'll see it again. Learn to spot it →
Receipts
- Refutes arcprize.org:
saturating the benchmark would not represent 'proof of achieving AGI'
- Supports fortune.com:
It's not unreasonable to feel that we are now in the AGI era
- Context medianama.com:
new legislation to permanently ban artificial superintelligence and temporarily pause advanced AI development in the US
- Context garymarcus.substack.com:
a permanent, unilateral ban on all research into superhuman AI is too broad, a guarantee of leaving the US behind
- Supports web.archive.org:
That's why I am introducing legislation to immediately pause the development of increasingly powerful AI and ban the creation of systems that humanity cannot fully control
- Supports web.archive.org:
persons shall be subject to not more than 20 years in prison, which is similar to existing penalties related to unlawfully developing nuclear weapons
- Refutes arcprize.org:
GPT-6 Astra scores 62.7% for $26K on ARC-AGI-3 Semi-Private with our Standard harness
- Context web.archive.org:
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) today introduced the Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act
Open the Receipts Pack → What each source proves, every figure traced, and what would change our verdict.