A research firm gave the company that runs Gemini a zero percent chance.
Of anything. Ever again.
SemiAnalysis wrote that DeepMind is no longer a frontier lab and its odds of reaching state of the art again have dropped to zero.
Before you read on. Your call?
CONTESTED
Odds of zero
the decline is documented. Fortune reports the burnout and the exodus of staff hopping over to pre-IPO labs, and the-decoder confirms Gemini 3.5 Pro was more or less shelved after missing its window. The trend is real.
The twist
zero is not a finding, it is a flourish. Gemini still books 12 billion dollars in annualized revenue and is still shipping preview frontier models like Gemini 3.1 Pro. That is a wounded lab, not a corpse. A probability of zero is the tell that someone stopped measuring and started performing.
There’s more to this story.
Membership opens the full investigation, the strongest counterargument and what to do with what you’ve learned.
Start your free month →First membership: 30 days free, then A$89 a year. One introductory trial per customer. Card required; renews annually until cancelled. Cancel before the trial ends to avoid the first charge. Already a member? Sign in
Couldn't check your access. That's on us.
Receipts
- Supports newsletter.semianalysis.com:
we believe DeepMind is no longer a frontier lab
- Context the-decoder.com:
Gemini 3.1 Pro is still only available in preview mode
- Supports fortune.com:
There's a lot of just hopping over to pre-IPO labs
- Context the-decoder.com:
Gemini's annualized revenue stood at $12 billion
- Refutes asimovaddendum.substack.com:
The evidence does not necessarily show that Google has abandoned technological ambition.
Open the Receipts Pack → What each source proves, every figure traced, and what would change our verdict.