Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies · chapter 1 · id superintelligence-c1-04-extrapolations-of-hardware-tre

“Extrapolations of hardware trends (Moore's Law) suggest computational power sufficient for human-brain-equivalent processing could be available within decades.”

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Kaplan et al. 2020, Scaling Laws for Neural Language Modelssource alive

Loss scales as a power-law with model size, dataset size, and compute. Larger models are significantly more sample-efficient.

AI Impacts: Discontinuous Progress in Historysource alive

Most technologies studied either don't demonstrate discontinuity, or only show about 10-30 years of progress in one go. Big jumps are fairly rare.

NJII: AI Hype Cyclessource alive

Moore's Law has slowed significantly since 2015. Transistor scaling continues but clock speeds plateaued. AI compute has grown faster than Moore's Law through parallelism (GPUs, TPUs).

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