Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies · chapter 8 · id superintelligence-c8-04-without-solving-the-alignment-

“Without solving the alignment problem, the default outcome of creating superintelligent AI is human extinction or permanent disempowerment.”

contestedconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending

Receipts

Grace et al. 2024, Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AIsource alive

Median AI researcher estimate: ~5% probability that advanced AI leads to human extinction or similarly bad outcome. Between 38-51% of respondents gave at least 10% chance to outcomes as bad as extinction.

CNBC: OpenAI Dissolves Superalignment Team (May 2024)source alive

Jan Leike wrote that OpenAI's 'safety culture and processes have taken a backseat to shiny products.' Multiple safety researchers departed in May 2024.

80,000 Hours: Shrinking AGI Timelines (2025)source alive

AGI timeline estimates have compressed significantly. Multiple prominent researchers (Hinton ~10-50%, Christiano ~10-20%) assign non-trivial probability to catastrophic outcomes.

This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us — corrections are loud here.