Thinking, Fast and Slow · chapter 22 · id thinking-fast-and-slow-c22-01-expert-intuition-is-valid-only

“Expert intuition is valid only when two conditions are met: (1) a high-validity environment with stable regularities, and (2) adequate opportunity to learn those regularities through practice with feedback.”

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Kahneman & Klein (2009), American Psychologist 64(6)DOI registry: valid

Two necessary conditions for valid intuitive expertise: the environment must have stable, learnable regularities, and the expert must have had opportunity to learn them with timely feedback. Chess and firefighting qualify; stock-picking and political forecasting do not.

Klein (1998), Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions, MIT PressFLAGGED: DOI not in registry

Experienced firefighters use recognition-primed decision-making: they recognize situation patterns from experience and mentally simulate the first option that comes to mind, rather than comparing options systematically.

This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us — corrections are loud here.