Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 2 · id thinking-in-bets-c2-02-philip-tetlocks-research-demon

“Philip Tetlock's research demonstrates that people who think in probabilities ('superforecasters') consistently outperform experts, pundits, and even intelligence analysts with access to classified data.”

holdsconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending

Receipts

Good Judgment Project (Tetlock & Mellers, 2011-2015)source alive

In a 4-year IARPA-funded tournament, 5,000+ participants made forecasts. The top 2% ('superforecasters') outperformed intelligence analysts with access to classified data by approximately 30%.

Katsagounos et al. (2020), 'Superforecasting reality check,' PLOS ONEDOI registry: valid

In a 9-month study with 195 participants, only 2 confirmed superforecasters were identified at the 2nd percentile. Supports the superforecasting hypothesis but notes significant sample constraints.

Bryan Caplan, Econlib Review of Superforecastingsource alive

Superforecasters are 'a rarity' -- only a few hundred globally among thousands screened. The claim that training produces superforecasters is not robustly established.

This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us — corrections are loud here.