Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 2 · id thinking-in-bets-c2-04-the-wanna-bet-technique----ask

“The 'wanna bet?' technique -- asking someone to wager on their stated belief -- should cause people to recalibrate their confidence levels and think more carefully about their claims.”

needs contextconfidence: medium⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending

Receipts

European Journal of Operational Research (2023), 'Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision'paywalled — manual check queued

Hypothetical bets -- debiasing strategies that require further reasoning after initial estimates -- were not very effective for reducing overprecision in probability judgments.

Kunda (1990), 'The case for motivated reasoning,' Psychological Bulletinsource alive

When researchers manipulated subjects' motivation to be accurate by informing them that the target task was highly important or that they would be expected to defend their judgments, subjects utilized deeper processing and there was less biasing.

Effectiviology, 'Debiasing: How to Reduce Cognitive Biases'source alive

Asking people to consider the opposite or to justify their reasoning can reduce bias, but effects vary by context and the specific bias being targeted.

This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us — corrections are loud here.