Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 2 · id thinking-in-bets-c2-07-bayesian-updating----revising-

“Bayesian updating -- revising probability estimates based on new evidence -- is the rational ideal for belief formation, but humans systematically deviate from it through conservatism or overweighting new information.”

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Receipts

Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience (2014), 'The neural basis of belief updating and rational decision making'source alive

Human decision makers typically deviate from Bayesian updating by either overweighting the prior (conservatism) or overweighting new information (the representativeness heuristic).

Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 'Bayesian Epistemology'source alive

Bayesian epistemology holds that rational agents update their beliefs in accordance with Bayes' theorem when they receive new evidence.

Augenblick & Rabin, 'Belief Movement, Uncertainty Reduction, and Rational Updating,' UC Berkeleysource alive

Although Bayes' rule is sometimes a good approximation of human behavior, well-documented systematic violations show that human beings are not Bayesian optimizers.

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