Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 3 · id thinking-in-bets-c3-07-backcasting----working-backwar

“Backcasting -- working backward from a desired future outcome to determine what steps are needed -- is a validated strategic planning technique developed by Robinson (1990).”

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Receipts

Mitchell, Russo & Pennington (1989), 'Back to the future: Temporal perspective in the explanation of events,' Journal of Behavioral Decision Makingpaywalled — manual check queued

Prospective hindsight -- imagining that an event has already occurred -- increases the ability to correctly identify reasons for future outcomes by 30%.

Robinson (2003), 'Backcasting -- a framework for strategic planning,' International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecologypaywalled — manual check queued

Robinson proposed a seven-step backcasting methodology: determining objectives, specifying goals/constraints/targets, describing the present system, specifying exogenous variables, scenario analysis, and impact analysis.

Wikipedia, Backcastingsource alive

Backcasting is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect that specified future to the present.

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