Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 3 · id thinking-in-bets-c3-09-self-serving-bias-causes-peopl
“Self-serving bias causes people to attribute good outcomes to skill and bad outcomes to luck, creating a systematic distortion in how we learn from experience.”
holdsconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending
Receipts
Kunda (1990), 'The case for motivated reasoning,' Psychological Bulletinsource alive
People are more likely to arrive at conclusions that they want to arrive at. The motivation to arrive at particular conclusions enhances use of strategies most likely to yield the desired conclusion.
Baron & Hershey (1988), 'Outcome bias in decision evaluation'DOI registry: valid
Factors at work include the overapplication of a general rule that bad outcome is a sign of bad decision making, and a belief in luck or clairvoyance as a consistent trait.
Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience (2014), neural basis of belief updatingsource alive
Participants who overweight new information display lower sensibility to conflict detection, while conservative decision makers make up their mind before new information is presented.
This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us — corrections are loud here.