Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 4 · id thinking-in-bets-c4-01-truth-seeking-groups-like-duke

“Truth-seeking groups (like Duke's poker strategy group) make systematically better decisions than individuals working alone.”

needs contextconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending

Receipts

PMC (2017), 'Making better decisions in groups,' Royal Society Open ScienceDOI registry: valid

Pooling information across independent individuals leads to more reliable information (Galton's ox experiment). However, groups can also amplify biases through groupthink, social conformity, and information cascades.

Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications (2020), 'Group decision-making efficiency'DOI registry: valid

Aggregating group-level decisions is superior to individual decisions in accuracy, but at the cost of processing speed and with significant variance based on group composition.

Janis (1998 reprint), 'Groupthink,' in Victims of GroupthinkFLAGGED: DOI not in registry

Groups with high cohesiveness, directive leadership, and lack of structured decision procedures are vulnerable to groupthink -- premature convergence on a suboptimal decision.

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