Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 4 · id thinking-in-bets-c4-09-groups-that-adopt-a-bet-thinki

“Groups that adopt a 'bet-thinking' culture -- where members frame disagreements as probability estimates rather than absolute positions -- make better decisions by reducing tribal identity dynamics.”

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Receipts

Good Judgment Project, Tetlock's 10 Commandmentssource alive

Granular probability thinking predicts accuracy. Superforecasters who used finer-grained probability estimates outperformed those using round numbers.

Nemeth (2001), Journal of Applied Social Psychologypaywalled — manual check queued

Dissent stimulates divergent thinking and broader information search, improving group decision quality.

Kunda (1990), 'The case for motivated reasoning'source alive

Accuracy motivation reduces biased processing. Structures that promote accuracy over directional goals improve reasoning quality.

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