Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 5 · id thinking-in-bets-c5-03-pre-mortems-imagining-failure-

“Pre-mortems (imagining failure before it happens) are more effective at identifying risks than post-mortems (analyzing failure after it happens).”

holdsconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending

Receipts

Mitchell, Russo & Pennington (1989), 'Back to the Future: Temporal Perspective in the Explanation of Events,' Management ScienceFLAGGED: DOI not in registry

Prospective hindsight -- imagining that an event has already occurred -- increases the ability to correctly identify reasons for future outcomes by 30%.

Klein (2007), 'Performing a Project Premortem,' Harvard Business Reviewsource alive

A premortem is the hypothetical opposite of a postmortem. Rather than asking what went wrong after the fact, team members imagine that a project has failed and work backward to determine what could lead to the failure.

This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us — corrections are loud here.