Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · chapter 6 · id thinking-in-bets-c6-01-ulysses-contracts-precommitmen

“Ulysses contracts (precommitment strategies where you bind your future self to a course of action) reliably improve decision-making by removing the option to give in to short-term impulses.”

holdsconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending

Receipts

Elster (2000), 'Ulysses Unbound: Studies in Rationality, Precommitment, and Constraints'source alive

Jon Elster formalized the concept of precommitment as a rational strategy for dealing with time-inconsistent preferences. Evidence from lab experiments and field data (savings enrollment, addiction recovery) supports its effectiveness.

Schilbach (2019), 'Alcohol and Self-Control: A Field Experiment in India,' Quarterly Journal of EconomicsDOI registry: valid

Workers who were given incentives to remain sober (a precommitment device) showed significant improvements in savings, work attendance, and earnings, demonstrating precommitment effectiveness in real-world conditions.

Psychology For (2024), review of Norway gambling self-exclusion studysource alive

Self-exclusion policies on gambling venues (a Ulysses contract) reduced total gambling by up to 20%. Their primary vulnerability lies in the ease with which they can sometimes be undone.

This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us — corrections are loud here.