The trick: Cherry-Picked Slice
A new NBER survey of 6,000 executives says 9 in 10 saw zero AI effect on their firm.
The same paper's authors are forecasting real effects within three years.
NBER working paper w34836 surveyed nearly 6,000 senior executives across the US, UK, Germany, and Australia and found more than 90% report no effect from AI on their own firm's employment over the past three years, and 89% report no effect on labor productivity.
Before you read on. Your call?
TRUE, BUT
90%
both figures check out against the primary paper and match independent coverage from the NBER Digest and The Register. What the popular retelling in this record strips out is the other half of the same survey: the same executives forecast a real productivity gain and a real employment drop over the NEXT three years, and the productivity figure being measured backward is a single self-reported metric, sales per employee, not an audited output measure.
The twist
a separate NBER paper on 5,179 real customer-support agents found a 14% productivity gain from generative AI tools, proof that a firm-level gut check can miss effects a task-level study catches directly.
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The trick has a name
We call it Cherry-Picked Slice: the flattering subset, presented as the whole. You'll see it again. Learn to spot it →
Receipts
- Supports nber.org:
More than 90 percent of executives report no effect of AI use on employment over the past three years, and 89 percent report no impact on labor productivity.
- Context theregister.com:
89 percent saw no change in productivity (measured as volume of sales per employee)
- Refutes nber.org:
increases productivity, as measured by issues resolved per hour, by 14% on average
- Context richturrin.substack.com:
70% are using AI, 80% report no impact on company productivity or on employment
- Context nber.org:
They forecast that over the next three years, AI will increase labor productivity by 1.4 percent on average while reducing employment by 0.7 percent, implying a net output gain of roughly 0.8 percent.
Open the Receipts Pack → What each source proves, every figure traced, and what would change our verdict.