The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable · chapter 1 · id the-black-swan-c1-02-a-black-swan-event-has-three-a
“A Black Swan event has three attributes: it is an outlier beyond regular expectations, it carries extreme impact, and human nature makes us concoct explanations for it after the fact, making it seem predictable in retrospect.”
holdsconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending
Receipts
Fischhoff (1975), 'Hindsight is not equal to Foresight', Journal of Experimental Psychologysource alive
Fischhoff demonstrated that people consistently overestimate the probability they would have assigned to an event before it occurred -- the 'I-knew-it-all-along' effect.
Roese & Vohs (2012), 'Hindsight Bias', Perspectives on Psychological ScienceDOI registry: valid
Meta-analysis of 122 studies confirms hindsight bias is a robust phenomenon across cultures, age groups, and domains.
This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us — corrections are loud here.