The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable · chapter 3 · id the-black-swan-c3-01-we-scour-the-world-for-evidenc
“We scour the world for evidence confirming our existing beliefs (confirmation bias) and ignore disconfirming evidence. This is hardwired into human cognition, not a correctable error.”
needs contextconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending
Receipts
Nickerson (1998), 'Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises', Review of General PsychologyFLAGGED: DOI not in registry
Confirmation bias is a broad category of biases that encompasses several specific phenomena, including biased hypothesis testing, biased interpretation, and biased memory.
Kappes et al. (2020), 'Confirmation bias in the utilization of others' opinion strength', Nature NeuroscienceDOI registry: valid
Neural evidence shows asymmetric updating: people weight confirmatory information more heavily at a neurological level.
Mercier & Sperber (2017), The Enigma of ReasonDOI registry: valid
Confirmation bias may be a feature, not a bug -- it evolved for argumentative contexts where defending positions is socially useful. This doesn't make it 'hardwired' in all contexts.
This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us — corrections are loud here.