The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable · chapter 3 · id the-black-swan-c3-02-the-narrative-fallacy-our-comp
“The narrative fallacy: our compulsion to fit a neat story to a sequence of disconnected facts. We cannot look at a series of events without imposing a causal explanation that makes them appear inevitable.”
holdsconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending
Receipts
Tversky & Kahneman (1981), 'The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice', ScienceFLAGGED: DOI not in registry
People rely on heuristic principles which reduce complex judgments to simpler operations. These heuristics are sometimes useful but can lead to systematic errors.
Pennington & Hastie (1993), 'The Story Model for Juror Decision Making'DOI registry: valid
Jurors construct narrative stories to organize evidence, and the coherence of the story -- not the strength of evidence -- drives verdicts.
This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us — corrections are loud here.