The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable · chapter 4 · id the-black-swan-c4-05-publication-bias-in-pharmaceut

“Publication bias in pharmaceutical research is severe: trials with positive findings are roughly four times more likely to be published than trials with negative results, and 25-50% of all clinical trials remain unpublished.”

holdsconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending

Receipts

Cochrane Review: Publication Bias in Clinical Trialssource alive

Trials with positive findings were more likely to be published than trials with negative or null findings, with an odds ratio of 3.90 (95% CI: 2.68 to 5.68).

Nature News: Half of US Clinical Trials Go Unpublished (2013)source alive

Analysis of ClinicalTrials.gov data found that roughly half of clinical trials registered in the United States remain unpublished years after completion.

Mlinaric et al. (2017), 'Dealing with the Positive Publication Bias', Biochemia Medicasource alive

60% of clinical trials with findings of inadequate drug efficacy or safety concerns remained unpublished. Only 41% of negative trials are published compared to substantially higher rates for positive trials.

This claim is a stable, citable object. If you can falsify a verdict, tell us — corrections are loud here.