The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable · chapter 4 · id the-black-swan-c4-08-the-drowned-worshippers-proble
“The drowned worshippers problem: Cicero recounted that when shown painted portraits of sailors who survived shipwrecks after praying to the gods, Diagoras of Melos asked 'Where are the portraits of those who prayed and then drowned?' -- an ancient formulation of survivorship bias.”
holdsconfidence: high⚠ extracted by pipeline, re-audit pending
Receipts
Wikipedia: Survivorship Biassource alive
Cicero in De Natura Deorum recounts that Diagoras of Melos, when shown portraits of those who survived shipwrecks after praying, asked where the pictures were of those who prayed and then drowned. This is one of the earliest known examples of survivorship bias reasoning.
Farnam Street: Survivorship Biassource alive
The concept dates back to antiquity: the Greek philosopher Diagoras, referenced by Cicero, pointed out the survivorship bias in votive offerings of shipwreck survivors.
The Decision Lab: Survivorship Biassource alive
Survivorship bias has been recognized since ancient times. The logical structure of the fallacy -- focusing on visible survivors while ignoring invisible failures -- was identified by classical philosophers.
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