The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable · chapter 5 · id the-black-swan-c5-02-philip-tetlock-studied-284-exp

“Philip Tetlock studied 284 experts making 82,361 predictions over 20 years and found their accuracy was no better than chance -- equivalent to 'a dart-throwing chimpanzee.'”

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Receipts

Tetlock (2005), Expert Political Judgment, Princeton University Presssource alive

284 experts, 82,361 predictions. Aggregate accuracy barely exceeded chance. Hedgehog-style thinkers performed worst; foxes slightly better but still poor.

Tetlock & Gardner (2015), Superforecasting: The Art and Science of PredictionFLAGGED: DOI not in registry

While average experts underperform, 'superforecasters' -- roughly 2% of the population -- consistently outperform by 30-70% over chance. This nuance is absent from The Black Swan's account.

Good Judgment Project / IARPA ACE Tournament ResultsFLAGGED: dead link (404)

IARPA-funded tournament showed superforecasters beat intelligence analysts with access to classified information by approximately 30%.

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